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Forecast 2002

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The ChannelMedia Top 10

Retail Digest:
PS2 titles outsell all major rivals' titles combined

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One to watch: USB on the go!

Learn from the Present

Research and Analysis
The Bloomies is off the Rose

The Three Faces of E-commerce

IBM: The Undisputed Leader In Corporate Notebook Sales?

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Hug A Customer

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Tech Rocks!

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Archived Issues
January 9, 2002   
  Forecast 2002
By ChannelMedia Staff

One of the major trends of 2002 will be the accelerated morphing of consumer electronics and personal computers. Call this new industry Personal Technology or Consumer Technology (but please not Technotainment). New product introductions particularly on the PC side will continue to slow down to normal and version changes will practically abate. Product lifecycles will increase thus producing a slight gain in lifetime sales and margin of a product. This is all good to an extent. My concern is innovation. We absolutely need continued innovation across the board but particularly in areas such as plug-and-play solutions, security products, kids’ software, and add-on peripherals for mobile products.

Before we can address other issues we have to look at the state of the overall economy. Most people agree that the U.S. economy hit bottom at some point in the second half of 2001. Most analysts are predicting some type of recovery over the New Year, but the numbers I’ve seen range from anemic to mild. I guess the answer lies somewhere in the middle with a wide range of variables impacting the potential scenarios. What will happen to long-term interest rates? Gas prices? Internet taxes? The Middle East? Employment figures? Adoption rates of Windows XP? IT Budgets? Consumer confidence? All of these provide forecasters with a big hedge. Hence, I had to ring up my advisory board, which provided me with my favorite gift over the holidays: Grist for the mill! Here’s how the ChannelMedia mavens break it down.

Retail
One of the more interesting areas to watch in the morphing process is watching how “pure play” PC resellers will position themselves amid a decline in desktop, notebook and server sales. Will consumer retailers see demand of tech products pick up in Q1-2? Will they have a strong enough product mix to support their sales goals? Will business retailers have enough demand in PC category? Will they be able to generate revenues from services and other offerings? Do they take a dive into consumer categories like electronics or office products, broaden into services or expand deeper into technology? These are the tough questions facing folks like Micro Center, MicroWarehouse, PC Connection, Insight, CDW, Zones, Tiger, Creative, etc.

Conjecture aside, we believe that retail sales in Consumer Electronics will be better in 2002 than they were in 2001. Wal-Mart and Target will continue to add lines in these areas but for sheer domination there will be no one close to touching Best Buy who will continue to expand through store openings and possibly more acquisitions. Its digestion of FutureShop, however, is one area that could cause a hiccup as the company moved very fast to close ranks around this integration to capture holiday sales. Are there still some skeletons left to clean out? We think CompUSA, with support from their parent company, will continue to show solid growth and profits but we’re not sure how much share they will gain in a slowing “PC/Technology superstore” environment. We expect them to continue to focus more on personal electronics, entertainment and consumer services. Circuit City, while the advisory group likes some of their TV spots and the ability to order online and pick up and return merchandise to stores, will continue to struggle in 2002. Ultimate Electronics’ expansion plans will cause some heartache in certain markets. Lots of votes across the board for who is doing well but players who we think might get some headlines will be Sears and Staples. Plugging along (but not expanding or causing as much heartache) will be MicroCenter, Costco, Brandsmart and Office Depot.

Best Bets: Fry’s, Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Target appear to be the best positioned in this space for 2002. EB, GoodGuys and Toys”R”Us could also have nice bounces. Leading business-focused retailers CDW to PC Connection to Staples, should have a stronger year in 2002 but is that enough? We remain concerned about PC Connection, Zones and OfficeMax.

Connections
2002 will NOT be the Year of Broadband. It will NOT be the year of P2P. It will be the year that dial up drops to the bottom of the tank and broadband continues to accelerate its installed base. Home networking products will show significant growth in 2002, and 802.3 (Ethernet) will be a big part of the business. Comcast's acquisition of AT&T Broadband will be approved. EchoStar's merger with DirecTV will be approved. PVR sales will double over 2001. SonicBlue will be sued, again, for doing what the consumer wants but content providers don't.

Platforms
Business budgets will remain tight as managers are encouraged to do more with less and the pros and cons of XP are debated. Consumers will have cash in their pockets in January but once they realize their cumulative debt levels, spending will fall off. How much? It depends on a myriad of issues. Related specifically to consumer tech, will XP be able to fan the flame of PC sales? Will prices of LCDs, printers, digital cameras and PDAs continue to decline enough to drive overall sales? Lots of questions: We all dream of wireless access but when will it show up? How fast will price, form and functionality all merge? Handspring’s deal with Qualcomm, RIMM posting a loss in its last quarter might be a sign of a one player (re) emerging and another one slipping. Palm seems to still be grasping. 3Com and Cisco were making lots of noise in the consumer space but that seems to have been set aside until they get their main house in order. HP-Compaq watchers remain focused on the impending proxy battle. I just hope someone is minding the $20 billion printer/cartridge business. Microsoft and Intel will continue to do well but AMD, Compaq and Sun are concerning me. The stronger players in software, storage, peripherals and accessories will have better years than last year.

Entertainment
Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo and EA will continue to drive sales of interactive entertainment products. And out of all of them, you have to like EA’s position as winning with all three consoles – they are dominating the software maker lists. Particularly from a P&L perspective, how do they lose? (Uh-oh, did we just curse them?). Interactive gaming is hot but can retail figure out a way to profit? Everquest, Activision, Interplay, Learning Co. are reportedly deep into development with some innovative new titles. And get me more Harry Potter, Jimmy Neutron and SpongeBob stuff. Does Gamestop get spun out of Barnes and Noble in Q1? Timing and momentum appear to say ‘Yes’ but who can predict the Winds of Change that continue to blow cold for IPO’s.

How do ChannelMedia’s Advisory views match with yours? We would love to hear. Feel free to drop me a line keithn@telocity.com and let me know if your comments can be posted.



  The ChannelMedia Top 10
By Keith Newman, Editor-in-Chief

1. How was this Xmas for Microsoft? It depends who’s counting, who you are asking, etc. Few I’ve spoken with are crowing about XP or raving about Xbox. By the way, I’m no Microsoft basher but it seems there are questions about the stability over latest rev of the operating system and as far as Xbox goes, its just a little pricey for what I believe consumers were looking to pay for this holiday season. That, and there isn’t much great software and it’s a new product for a new company in the console space. That said, the numbers on XP and Xbox appear stronger than I would’ve guessed. According to published reports, retailers sold 250,000 copies of Windows XP in November, its first full month of availability, slightly down from 400,000 in October. And remember, Microsoft sells most of its OS product to its OEM partners (Gateway, Dell, Compaq, etc.), Just go and try and buy a new PC without XP! On the game side, Sony sold 1.4 million units of the PlayStation 2 in the United States in the fourth quarter through Dec. 8, according to sales figures tallied by NPD and compiled in a report released by Credit Suisse. Microsoft trailed slightly, selling 934,000 copies of its Xbox through Dec. 8. Nintendo came in a more distant third with 615,000 units of its GameCube console. The Xbox went on sale Nov. 15; the GameCube debuted Nov. 18. Xbox sales were on track to reach 1.5 million units by the end of the year, in line with the high end of Microsoft's estimates, according to reports. To my discerning eye, this has to represent a victory for Microsoft given the huge head start Sony and Nintendo have in the category, channel and with software makers.

2. Amazon has just what you are looking for in 2002. Profits? No, besides that. They are popping with yet another category store called “The New You.” This “store” features a wide array of products designed to meet health, mind and body needs -- from books, to fitness videos and DVDs, to self-pampering spa sets or Aromatherapy machines, paraffin baths and facial sauna. What do you think? I know. What happened to profits?

3. According to one online report, Americans spent $2.6 billion online during the first week of December, jumping 91 percent from the $1.4 billion spent during an average week in November, according to data from the eSpending report by Goldman Sachs, Harris Interactive and NetRatings. "The surge in online buying is a critical first sign that online spending in December will increase faster than November's modest 10 percent annual growth," said Sean Kaldor, vice president of analytical services at NetRatings. "For a successful December, consumers will need to maintain these aggressive spending levels for the next two weeks."

4. Nielsen/NetRatings announced the top e-tailers for the month of November, with Amazon.com leading the way with 31.5 million unique visitors. Traffic to the site jumped 32% since last year, marking a record high for 2001.

5. Anyone still believe in pure plays? Among the top 10 e-tailers…Toys”R”Us (3), Barnes and Noble (4), BestBuy (6), Wal-Mart (8) and Sears (10).

6. Thoughts or concerns about vendors selling direct? Apple (5), Dell (7), HP (9).

7. Sell deep and often. With the popularization of “purchase online and pick up offline (at the nearby store)” this year is seeing a strong increase in customers who are surfing for best pricing and availability and then ordering and picking up at the store. As a result, online selling is going much deeper into the holiday season this year. Sources we spoke with say more and more customers are using this “pick up” feature and it is particularly hot with products that lend themselves to some pre-purchase research (i.e. computers and electronics). Technology is also critical on the back end as systems need to identify the order, confirm its availability in inventory, deliver it at the right place and time. On the plus side, it all but guarantees that if an order is confirmed it is in stock thus creating a near “virtual” inventory situation. (If you don’t have this feature available now, start exploring! Many of your customers will likely appreciate/demand this feature. (i.e. partner via players like Amazon-Circuit).

8. Radio Shack is looking to close 35 stores and shed a variety of product categories that are not hitting their profit targets (car stereo, big screens and security systems). What’s hot are cell phones, batteries and other electronics accessories.

9. The Fun and Games continue at EB. The retailer reported a 6.3% rise in Q3 sales to $169M and net income doubled to $2.9M. PSX, Game Cube and Xbox should continue to put cheer in this retailer and those of similar gaming ilk.

10. Yahoo reported that sales over at Yahoo! Shopping showed an increase of more than 86% over the same period the prior year. Yahoo! Users spent $10.3 billion online in the fourth quarter of 2001. Bargain shopping was one of the big themes that prevailed this year as numerous merchants enticed consumers to shop online by offering exclusive online sales or attractive discounts. Among the top categories: videogame systems, digital cameras, laptops. Interesting, they are promoting themselves as retailers and they just bought Hot Jobs.com for $480M. It seems to me like this is a company still figuring out what it wants to be when it grows up?

11. GartnerG2 predicts that by 2005, online advertising will be an $18.8 billion market in the U.S., up from $7.9 billion in 2001. Whew! And I thought I was in the wrong business.

Keith Newman is the Editor-in-Chief of ChannelMedia. He can be reached at keithn@telocity.com.

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  PS2 titles outsell all major rivals' titles combined
By ChannelMedia Staff

Video games for Sony's PS2 console outsold titles for all of its major rivals combined in the first half of December, according to a report released Wednesday. Games for PS2 held eight of the top 20 sales spots and represented five of the 10 best-selling titles over that period, according to NPD. The top-selling game for the first half of December was "Grand Theft Auto 3," published by Take-Two Interactive Software for the PS2. Three of the four Xbox titles that were among the top-selling games in November did not make the early December list. The only Xbox title to carry over was the futuristic war game "Halo," published by Microsoft.

Good Guys named Kenneth R. Weller, president and chief executive officer, as chairman, to succeed Ron Unkefer, who is retiring as chairman and as a board member. Unkefer remains the company's largest individual shareholder. In 1993, following an 11-year career at Good Guys, Weller left the company and joined Best Buy as senior vice president of sales, where he was responsible for 120 stores and more than $7.0 billion in revenue. Weller also led Best Buy's expansion throughout the western United States, opening more than 60 stores in seven years.

More Good: Good Guys unveiled its completely redesigned Beverly location that will serve as a prototype for future remodels and in-market expansion. "Good Guys Beverly represents a dramatic departure from traditional retail merchandising for consumer electronics," said Cathy A. Stauffer, executive vice president of merchandising and advertising, Good Guys. "By making products more inviting to customers and easier to understand through high-impact graphics, detailed product information and interactive displays in an open, sales-assisted environment, Good Guys is taking the complexity out of shopping for entertainment electronics and helping customers make informed purchasing decisions that will enrich their lives for years to come." Good Guys Beverly features compelling, theme-based lifestyle imagery, original fixture designs and interactive displays that create individual product and category identities and encourage customers to linger and explore the entire store. The store boasts eight touch-screen kiosks and three gaming modules that demonstrate the Sony PlayStation and Nintendo GameCube gaming platforms, which Good Guys is introducing as part of a test at its Beverly location.

Merrill Lynch comments on Best Buy, saying New York region stores continued to comp at strong rates according to store personnel; believes DVD hardware sold well throughout the chain as inventory is heavily depleted. Notes that PC hardware department experienced continued moderation in rate of decline, a positive trend; software sales were solid with video games and movies offsetting flat music segment; gross profit comps likely rose at much higher rate than same-store sales as promotions did not ramp up last two weeks of Christmas.

Two suffering B2B marketplace vendors have tied their ships to each other. Verticalnet acquired Atlas Commerce, a leading provider of private exchange software and strategic sourcing applications. The acquisition expands Verticalnet's offerings to a broad Collaborative Sourcing Solution that delivers superior functionality through an integrated, multi-enterprise exchange platform.

Roughly 537 Internet companies folded in the past year compared with 225 in 2000, according to Webmergers.com, a company that provides research to the Internet industry. E-commerce and content sites were hit the hardest over the past two years, comprising two-thirds of sites that failed in the harsh climate of a crashing economy and anemic stock market. E-commerce companies accounted for nearly 35 percent of the failures in 2001, down from 54 percent in 2000, while news, entertainment and other content sites made up 24 percent of the shutdowns in 2001, and 27 percent in 2000.

Apple Stores will post a slight loss in fiscal year 2002. Earlier, Apple said it expected the more than two dozen stores to break even in the first fiscal quarter of 2002, which ends this month, and to achieve a slight profit for the full fiscal year. Apple said it anticipates capital spending of $200 million as it opens an unspecified number of retail stores boosts its information technology infrastructure and replaces existing assets. Following double-digit growth in fiscal year 2000, Apple saw double-digit declines in 2001. U.S. sales, for instance, dropped 30 percent to $3 billion in fiscal 2001. Sales of iMacs declined 45 percent, from $2.2 billion to $1.2 billion. Only the iBook, the company's consumer portable, saw sales rise.

Belkin was recently awarded six "Innovations 2002 Design and Engineering Awards" at this year's International CES. "As a company, Belkin continually strives to create innovative, imaginative, and exciting new products," said Eric Tong, director of marketing and product development. "Winning six CES Innovations Awards goes to show that the industry as a whole sees that we are doing just that," he added. For more information, call 1-800-2BELKIN, or visit the company's Web site at www.belkin.com.

Softbank Founder and CEO Masayoshi Son resigned from the Board of Ariba, a large b2b marketplace vendor and Softbank said that it was reducing its stake in another major investment, Yahoo!. Also last week, Softbank announced it would sell a 3 percent stake in Yahoo! to SBC Communications Inc. On Nov. 20, Softbank posted a group net loss of 54.3 billion yen, or $441.2 million for the first half of the year and gave no forecasts for the full year through March 2002. Softbank has investments in more than 600 Internet firms.

Insight said that their Web business has seen a boost in December due in part to the upcoming Insight.com Bowl game. According to Timothy A. Crown, chief executive officer, ``We're excited to see Insight's customers take control of their purchases by customizing their Insight Web experience to maximize the benefit they receive from our technology. Our Web site features the largest selection of technology available online and business customer-focused tools to make your buying experience convenient and efficient.”

Going Hardcore. Blockbuster started offering a special 30-day rental pass for $29.99, allowing one game rental per day. But the offer expires on Jan. 31. "The games pass program is really just for the holiday season," spokeswoman Liz Greene said. Game rentals represented 9 percent of Blockbuster's revenues through the third quarter, she said, and are expected to be 12 percent to 14 percent of revenues in 2002. Meanwhile, BestBuy.com said it has begun offering PCs made by Alienware, a manufacturer of custom systems with high-end sound and graphic components specifically for video game play. BestBuy.com said it was the first online retailer to offer Alienware high-end systems, which cost anywhere from $1,385 to $2,295.

By ChannelMedia Staff. Additional reporting from various news and wire services. For information you would like to see included here contact keithn@telocity.com.

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  One to watch: USB on the go!
By ChannelMedia Staff

A new peripheral technology is expected to be introduced this year that will reportedly provide users of multiple mobile devices with a new way to interconnect the devices, as well as connect them to their computers. It is an adaptation of the existing Universal Serial Bus (USB) technology that now is a standard method for connecting most peripherals to computers. While it has replaced the serial and parallel ports on computers, technical issues prevented it from becoming a mainstream technology for devices such as MP3 players, cell phones and digital cameras. Called the USB On-the-Go (OTG), it is a supplement to the existing USB 2.0 specification that will provide portable devices to serve as hosts to additional USB devices, without the need for a PC host, as was previously required. Any product that wants to use the technology will be required to undergo USB compliance testing in order to qualify for the USB logo. It specifies a smaller connector that requires less power so that it can fit easily into a mobile products design footprint.

The technology has wide industry support, with Ericsson, Intel, NEC, Microsoft, Motorola, Cypress, Palm, Philips, Hewlett-Packard, and Texas Instruments all contributing to the drafting of the standard. Cypress has already released silicon that hardware OEMs can incorporate into products and the first peripherals are expected later this year. The OTG supplement will allow devices to have a limited host ability, enabling it to operate with other USB OTG equipped devices as well as being supported by a PC. Currently to have two USB peripherals communicate with each other a PC is required as the medium. By eliminating it, a cell phone can directly transmit pictures taken from a digital camera, for instance.

Not all OTG devices would be able to serve as hosts however. Only OTG devices that are advertised as dual-mode. In addition they would never be the host when attached to a PC. Another break from USB tradition is that there will not be universal support. The USB OTG specification will not be required to support all USB device types, although in the future that could be added. The technology looks to be in direct competition with other short-range technologies such as Bluetooth and the various shades of 802.11; it does appear that it will have a niche of its own. The ability to control other devices from say a cellular phone could be very popular. However, it will have to deal with the appeal that the other technologies, especially Bluetooth, have in not requiring physical cables to connect them.

Whether USB can replicate the success it has achieved on the desktop in the mobile peripheral market remains to be seen. The OTG technology is behind the development curve compared to some of its rival technologies. However the backing of so many major players in the PC and communications market does provide some advantages to help it catch up quickly.
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  Learn from the Present
By ChannelMedia Staff

Those who theorize the universe is shrinking need only to have ventured to Internet World in Manhattan this month for depressing confirmation. A show that once filled two or three floors of the massive Javits Center this year barely took up half the main floor--and that's after combining with the likes of the Streaming Media East show.

Companies typically banished to the basement found themselves placed in prime real estate on the main floor, leading to sometimes-odd juxtapositions. Visitors could, for instance, hit AOL co-chief executive Robert Pittman at his outsize AOL booth with a bean ball from Switzerland's Business Promotion Central. Despite the obvious decimation, Pittman painted a rosy picture for the Internet, saying it had reached "critical mass" with two-thirds of U.S. households, and adding, "The revolution is just beginning."

To shell-shocked show-goers, the revolution nearly began when he abruptly ended his brief speech with this zinger: "Every other piece of the Internet [but advertising] is moving forward as if nothing bad were happening in the economy.”

Retailers of any type were non-existent on the show floor, and those companies that were dot-coms were reluctant to admit it.

Dot Com Distributors, an Edison, NJ-based company that sprouted two years ago to handle fulfillment of e-commerce orders, has switched to a "multi-channel" mode, shipping now to traditional retailers, said Doug Sternberg, vice president of sales. The company is considering changing its name, but is having second thoughts because the dot-com connotations are so horrible that he believes people will remember it.

Angela Kapp, a consultant with Angela Kapp Consulting, said during a conference that Sternberg's multi-channel strategy is clearly the way to go. She challenged attendees to name a single online-only retailer, then shot down all comers with evidence of their direct mail or catalog sales--including Buy.com.

Two other observations.

The days of lavish spending and giveaways are over. Alan Brody, executive program director of the Silicon Alley Breakfast Club, a networking event, complained of certain "homeless" elements among the Internet World crowd not seen at past events. He then lifted a sheet of paper from a dish of Hershey's Kisses he'd been hiding to avoid being cleaned out. "There were people coming by taking six at a time!" he said. Lastly, the days of wearing shorts, T-shirts and an attitude to the convention are fading fast.

At the booth for SuperUpdate, a startup content management company, all four college-grad company executives were decked out in suits. Explained Michael Colsher, vice president of engineering, "It's become more serious. People aren't throwing money at you."
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  The Bloomies is off the Rose
By Geri Spieler, GartnerG2

Effective 1 February 2002, Federated Departments Stores, Inc. will turn bloomingdales.com into a marketing site and focus its online resources on macys.com. The only direct sales for bloomingdales.com will be through its partnership with WeddingChannel.com and electronic order forms for purchasing from the Bloomingdale's By Mail catalog.

GartnerG2 analysis

The costly challenge of selling online has caught up with a major department store chain and is forcing the evolution of a new strategy. High-end department stores are beginning to pull the plug on costly Web channels that require extensive technology and staff support, but do not necessarily deliver revenue in return. Retailers were dragged onto the Internet during the Web frenzy, and many mistakenly tried to emulate their catalog business online. Marketing products via catalogs and selling to a virtual, border-less geography proved to have nothing in common. Three years and a deflated economy later, the reality of merchandising and managing a Web channel has caught up with the big chain retailers, who are finally deciding which Web strategies to pursue. Big chain retailers will look more critically at the costs-versus-return on investment that their Web channels offer, and will start cutting back on Web offerings. Not all will take drastic measures like Federated did with bloomingdales.com, but we will begin to see a large shift in terms of consolidation and movement towards more service-oriented retail Web sites, than sites designed strictly for merchandising and sales.

GartnerG2 recommends

Retailers: Be cautious about making "knee-jerk" reactions to what will be a temporary economic condition. Merchandise the Web store for popular priced items. Make the Web channel the primary customer service, communication and campaign vehicle, linked to both the store and catalog sales.

For more details visit www.gartnerg2.com.
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The Three Faces of E-commerce
By David Schehr, GartnerG2

Viewpoint

All platforms are not created equal for e-commerce, but each has its use in the increasingly interconnected telecommunications environment.


The hype around emerging mobile and interactive TV platforms overstates the near-term importance in e-commerce. Because of differences in capabilities and functionality, consumers will favor different platforms for different roles and at different times. Retailers and the technology vendors supporting them must make strategic investment and development decisions that take full advantage of the range of existing opportunities. Most companies cannot afford to try every new e-commerce idea, so they must choose wisely to get the greatest payoff from their investments.

Dynamics

E-commerce represented about 1% of total U.S. retail sales in 2000, and will grow to more than 5% ($168.6 billion) by 2005. Unlike in Europe, the PC is the dominant e-commerce transaction platform in the United States, in both users and dollars.

  • To date, virtually all of U.S. e-commerce has been conducted via the PC.

  • Other platforms constitute a drop in the bucket: Mobile and Interactive TV account for only 0.1% of U.S. e-commerce volumes in 2000 (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: U.S. interactive platform penetration, 2000

Base: U.S. adults (205 million)
Source: GartnerG2, August 2001

Web services can drive growth

  • U.S. consumers are beginning to try other platforms to buy on the Web. More extensive use of these alternative platforms is already happening in Europe (see Figure 2), and GartnerG2 expects significant growth in the United States over the next five years.

Figure 2: Interactive platform comparative penetration, 2000

Source: GartnerG2, August 2001

The United States has been slower than Europe to adopt non-PC technologies for technical and infrastructure reasons, but this will gradually change.
Growth in the use of alternative platforms is restricted by the following three drivers:

  • First is the widespread entrenchment of the PC and PC-based Internet access within American households. This resulted primarily from familiarity in the workplace, which spilled over into the American home.

  • Second, most Americans accessing the Internet from home enjoy "flat rate" access. In general, it costs most consumers the same whether they access the Internet for one hour or 100 hours in a month.

  • Third, interactive TV and mobile Internet access each face technical and infrastructure impediments that will slow distribution and use in the United States.

E-commerce platform growth will hinge on four factors
Infrastructure hurdles will be overcome in the next two to three years—at least in major metropolitan markets. All three platforms will then compete on the following criteria:

  • Information throughput. Information throughput is a combination of bandwidth and data capacity. Mobile channels typically have thinner "pipes" than interactive TV or PC channels. If application and user-interface designers try to replicate an interactive TV- or PC-like experience, mobile Internet access will be a disappointment to consumers. Interactive TV, on the other hand, uses a medium designed to carry full motion images with surround sound—a "fat pipe" in terms of data downloads and uploads.

  • Ease of use. There are no "dummies" books for TV remote controls or telephones because both platforms use simple input devices that virtually every consumer has used regularly from childhood. Moreover, the two technologies are robust, with few operational glitches. PCs, on the other hand, are still somewhat quirky and mysterious for most consumers. Even after 20 years of development, PCs seem prone to "crashing" for no apparent reason.

  • Flexibility. The PC's keyboard and mouse are a much more robust input system than the alternative platforms, so consumers can enter information (such as filling out an order form) quickly and easily. It also allows rapid entry of characters, point-and-click functionality and easy retrieval of preferred sites and vendors through lists of favorites and bookmarks. Flexibility is further defined by the range of commerce sites that a device can access. For interactive TV, this is a major constraint. As envisioned, the system operator initiates the choice of interactions and the consumer will generally only be able to interact with what is being presented, rather than deciding what information to view in the first place.

  • Access availability. Here, mobile wins. By definition, its size, weight and portability enhance anytime/anywhere access. Interactive TV has a slight edge over the PC, simply because there are more TV sets in a given home than there are PCs.


In summary, no one platform dominates all categories of feature/functionality. Each has particular strengths and weaknesses (see Table 1), making each the most appropriate device in specific situations.


Table 1: Platform functionality comparison

Source: GartnerG2, August 2001

Understanding how these various criteria translate to different sales opportunities will enable retailers and system operators to plan strategic investments to get the greatest long-term return on their efforts.

Figure 3: Projected U.S. interactive platform penetration, 2005

Source: GartnerG2, August 2001

Predictions

  • By 2005, 42% of U.S. consumers will use multiple platforms—PC, mobile and interactive TV—on a regular basis.

  • PCs will remain the dominant platform; interactive TV and mobile gains will come primarily from location- or situation-specific buying.

  • Mobile devices will be used primarily for purchasing access (public transportation, entertainment tickets, etc.) and time-sensitive or alert-driven purchases or location-specific purchases.
  • Interactive TV will be most often used in a responsive mode, in reaction to an advertisement or other stimulus during normal television viewing.

  • U.S. consumers will be willing to use any or all platforms, individually or in combination, as occasion and opportunity allow.

Recommendations

  • Stress PCs for active shopping, phones for location-based and interactive TV for impulse buys.

  • Help consumers use the channels synergistically—help them set up shopping lists on the PC then order via mobile.

  • Multinational vendors and retailers: Use Europe as a proving ground for mobile and interactive TV initiatives. Then figure how to translate the offerings for the U.S. environment. Europe is more mobile- and interactive TV-oriented, and less PC-focused, so it provides better near-term testing opportunities for these systems. But be careful in looking to import these offerings to the United States. What works in one market doesn't always work in another.

For more details visit www.gartnerg2.com
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  IBM: The Undisputed Leader In Corporate Notebook Sales?
By Matt Sargent, Notebooks Analyst, ARS Research

As the PC market continues its dismal tailspin, PC manufacturers are desperately refocusing on the few areas of growth that still remain. One area that has continued to expand is the notebook market. Notebook sales are blessed not only with stronger demand than their desktop brethren, but also by the fact that they carry higher margins allowing PC manufacturers to venture into the long-forgotten realm of selling PCs at a profit. Central to notebook sales is the corporate market, which accounts for approximately 70% or more of overall US notebook sales. And central to the corporate notebook market is the two-spindle notebook. The traditional leader in this two-spindle, corporate-focused market place has been IBM, but the renewed focus on the corporate notebook market has brought increased attention from Dell and Compaq, which have revamped their respective two-spindle product lineups to challenge the market leader.

The IBM ThinkPad T-series is clearly still the "mindshare" leader within the two-spindle corporate space. There are some indications that Dell's Latitude C610/C600-Series has surpassed the ThinkPad in terms of unit sales, but the ThinkPad still remains as the clear leader in terms of overall brand image among corporate buyers. This leadership position however will likely experience increased levels of challenges from Dell and Compaq. Dell is obviously leading with price with the Latitude C610-series, but has added two significant features that were lacking in the Latitude C600 series that make the C610 a much more formidable competitor outside of its low price. First, users can now simultaneously configure the Latitude C610 with an integrated wireless LAN, modem, and 10/100 LAN connection. The previous Latitude C600 series forced users to choose either an integrated 10/100 LAN connection or an integrated wireless LAN, but not both. If an integrated 10/100 LAN connection was chosen, a wireless LAN could be added to the C600, but only through the PC Card. Second, Dell has standardized on the new Intel Pentium III-"M" processor, a move made earlier by IBM. The Pentium III-"M" has become the price for entry into the two-spindle corporate market. The power-savings provided by the new 0.13 Micron Tualatin process (which is the clearest differentiator between the Pentium III and the Pentium III-"M" processor) are clearly significant and highly desired by mobile workplace users. While these improvements are well received, they are not especially significant leaps for the industry and actually represent similar moves made earlier by IBM and others.

Thus, Dell uses price as a clear differentiator. This difference can be seen when comparing popular configurations. The IBM ThinkPad T23-26474MU currently sells for $2,754 from IBM.com. A somewhat similarly configured Dell Latitude C610 sells for $2,256. The ThinkPad does have a faster processor (1.2GHz P3-"M" versus 1.0GHz P3-"M") and a larger hard drive (30GB versus 20GB), but these two advantages are valued at $359 according to the latest ARS Feature Neutralization Pricing Report, well short of the $498 price difference. Given other minor specification differences, ARS estimates that this ThinkPad is overpriced by $155 when compared with the Latitude C610 configuration. Dell salesmen will definitely highlight this price/performance advantage while IBM will need to focus on its long-term stability, security options, and other features that a company of its size can offer. Unfortunately for IBM, in this time of tightening corporate budgets, users have become much more cognizant of sales pitches that can illustrate a straightforward pricing advantage.

Compaq has also revamped its two-spindle notebook line with the introduction of the Evo N600c. The Evo N600c replaces the Armada M700. Enhancements include the Pentium III-"M" processor and expansion capability through Compaq's MultiPort. MultiPort allows users to add wireless devices after the initial purchase. MultiPort is different from a standard PC card slot in that MultiPort is integrated within the corner of the display lid giving any wireless add-on a more built-in feel. MultiPort wireless LAN cards do not have protruding antennae or any other extraneous components that would take away from the smooth look and feel of the base notebook. This ability to add wireless functionality after the initial purchase is an advantage the Compaq Evo N600c has over both Dell and IBM. To add integrated wireless functionality to either the IBM ThinkPad T23 or to the Dell Latitude C610, a user must request it be built in at the time of the purchase.

In addition to the MultiPort advantage, Compaq has also taken a page from Dell's book and has made the Evo N600c very competitive in terms of price/performance. The Evo N600C- 470019-411 is priced at $2,349. This is $405 less than the IBM ThinkPad used in the Dell comparison above. Similar to the comparison with the Dell Latitude, the IBM has a faster processor (1.2GHz P3-"M" versus 1.06GHz P3-"M") and a larger hard drive (30GB versus 20GB), but these two advantages are valued at $259 according to the latest ARS Feature Neutralization Pricing Report, well short of the $405 price difference.

Given that both Dell and Compaq are producing equivalent systems at a more attractive price point, ARS expects that IBM may need to sacrifice margin in order to maintain its leadership position. Whoever can remain on top in the two-spindle notebook space will likely control the entire notebook market, and given that the notebook segment is currently the most profitable area of the PC market, ARS suspects this battle to be pivotal in the overall struggle for PC supremacy.

For more information visit
www.ars1.com
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  Hug a Customer
By Steve Cross

Last month I talked about getting closer to customers. The closer we get, the better we know their changing needs and priorities. With advance knowledge of these changes, we can beat the competition to meeting customer priorities. By doing that, we can find profits before the competition does.

Let’s look at a few simple tools for getting closer. Here’s an easy one; walk over to where the calls come in (if you outsource front line sales, have them transfer some calls to your personal queue), and take some customer calls. Find out what customers are asking about, what they’re concerned about. Or just ask your customers how they use your products. Make sure you write down the answers.

Here’s a good one; find the department at your company that spends the most time talking to customers. Maybe that’s customer service, or tech support. Ask the boss of that department to poll his/her staff about the top 5 customer requests. The results may surprise you. Maybe you have a problem that nobody told you about, or customers are doing something new, and unpredicted, with your product. Or maybe you have a vibrant and growing specialty channel you didn’t know about.

We did that one at Connectix and found out that graphics professionals were using RAM Doubler (a software product) in a way we hadn’t expected. Using this new information, we changed the copy in our ads, in our catalog insertions, and in our trade show pitch. The result was a totally compelling story for the graphics professional market, producing terrific penetration and tons of incremental revenue.

Add a survey to your Web site. It’s cheap, fun, and interactive. Ask people to rate your download area or your e-commerce function on a 1-to-10 scale. Solicit comments, too. Enter customers in a contest when they take a few minutes to fill in a more detailed online survey; that way you get more info and the customer starts to develop a relationship with your company. Outfits like InstantSurvey, and FreeOnlineSurvey (a misnomer) use an ASP model that hosts the survey and works with a link on your Web site. SurveySite puts a pop-up on your Web site. Of course, the more questions you ask, the more you pay. How pricey are these services? Quicktake will do 100 responders (statistically significant) for $1500.

How about a survey to your email database? Test out some concepts. See what the customer is thinking. Find out if the current multi-channel approach is adequate. Maybe your company needs to add another channel. Or that your customer base will respond well to emailed offers of third-party products. Until you ask the customers, and analyze the answers you won’t know. Use a simple approach at first. Later, you can look for more information. All you have to do is start. Hey, it’s a New Year! So do something new.

Steve Cross is a leading consultant specializing in building value for high tech companies. He is best known as former Vice President of Sales at Connectix during their turnaround from under $1 million to over $70 million in annual revenue from 1993-1997. His clients have included Pinnacle Systems, Visioneer, Dazzle, Network ICE, Margi, Aladdin, Outpost.com, and many others.

Contact: steve@crosschannel.com

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  Tech Rocks
By Alan Schiff

Over the past five years, technology sponsors have begun to use rock concerts as a marketing tool. They see an associative value that you might call a coolness factor, which is great for tech sponsors wanting to showcase their products to a specific age group.

One of the most frequent, tech sponsors is Sony Playstation. Playstation was one of the first to sponsor rock tours and remains a major player. Games are set up for kids to play and contests are run before and during each event to provide Playstation winners with a chance to share a meal or party with a featured band.

In 1997 and ’98, Yahoo! was the official Internet sponsor of the H.O.R.D.E. Festival and then joined the Van's Warped Tour in 1999. After much success, they produced their own tour, Yahoo! Outloud, featuring Smashmouth in 2000 and Weezer in 2001. They leveraged these tours to showcase their own services (Yahoo Sports, Music, Shopping, Photos, etc.) and partner with other technology and consumer brands like Doritos, Pepsi One, Liquid Audio, Hewlett-Packard and others. At the Hewlett-Packard exhibit, kids could have their picture taken with featured bands, which were actually life-size photos. An HP camera took the shot, which was printed with an HP printer. This proved to be the most successful sponsor exhibit on the tour. Tech sponsors can go beyond branding association--posting their logo at the event--to provide entertaining exhibits involving partners and promotions on many levels. They can involve strategic, complimentary or contributing partners. Game console vendors can invite publishers to participate. Internet search companies can include their content partners and retailers who sell the products. Using your partners of course also lowers your costs. Some may wonder if this is just another marketing “fad.” I don't think so. The opportunities provide access to a specific demographic group and allow the sponsor to create long-lasting meaningful impressions. Rock and roll sponsorship is a great way to reach specific consumer groups cost effectively.

Alan Schiff has been marketing microcomputer products for well over ten years, providing clients with assistance in merchandising and promotion, tour and sports sponsorship and marketing data analysis. His clients include AT&T, IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Logitech, Key Tronic, Yahoo!, Launch Media and others.

Contact Alan at alanschiff@yahoo.com.

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  Brand and Positioning
By Robert Gelphman

Brand seems to be all the rage these days with declining sales and profit margins. However, the influx of new and available products, some actually very interesting and useful, has not abated. To jump start sales, many people are asking me about branding. But their question should be positioning. Often what goes wrong with marketing campaigns is the underlying strategy. Too many VPs of marketing and their product managers choose a branding campaign when they cannot even articulate a position. The pursuit of brand is expensive, time consuming and is designed to elicit an emotional reaction from the audience. It generally works best for commodity-type products where there is little distinction among the competition. Positioning is based on a demonstration of real value, can be done in a much shorter time frame (months rather than years), and consequently is significantly less expensive. Most importantly, for many industries and companies, positioning is the best strategy for improving sales and market share, not branding.

The real problem, however, is that many people do not know the difference between the two. Instead of pursuing brand, or ubiquity (everyone knows you), it is often more appropriate to establish positioning, or value (everyone wants you). When market share is the objective, the fastest and least expensive marketing strategy is positioning. The building of a brand not only takes more time and money than originally budgeted, but can be difficult to measure, as brand does not always show up in the form of sales. Many of the dot-coms fell into this trap. Basically, they failed to communicate a value proposition. People knew who they were but did not know why they needed them. They thought the road to market share was paved by brand creation. They succeeded in generating Web hits but not sales. Positioning creates demand for a product. Brand works best when leveraging this already established need or demand for continued sales. Positioning helps create brand but brand does not always or necessarily contribute to position. Some companies have achieved brand in a short time but are still suffering from an unclear positioning. This is a situation that currently affects Yahoo! It could be argued that Yahoo! has brand but no position. Is Yahoo! a search engine? A portal? An online auction site ? A content aggregator? Online store? All of the above? What is the value proposition to its customers? What is the company’s position vis a vis its competitors? In every one of these categories, Yahoo! has formidable competition. What is least understood about building brand is the amount of time required. Amazon did it in a relatively short time but anyone can articulate its reason for existence--online storefront. Hence, the call to action is visit the site for eventual purchase of a particular product. People go there expecting to spend money and this in turn creates market share. So before creating brand, establish a position. Define positioning as that desirable place in the customer’s mind where he not only recognizes the product but can also recite the attributes of the product or service being offered. Effective positioning makes the customer a part of the sales team while reinforcing your positioning efforts. Positioning is dynamic and fluid. Yesterday’s unique position is today’s commodity provider. Useful positioning statements should describe who the company is AND who it wants to be. Inherent in any successful positioning exercise is the continuous assessment and analysis of targeted customers. For many high technology companies, the customer is an engineer, a network administrator or at least someone proficient in computers and technology. Brand is irrelevant and value, articulated through positioning, rules. These folks require information on how to use your product and why it best serves their purposes. This is best achieved through positioning, not branding.

Many companies think that leadership is the same as positioning. But leadership and value do not always equate. If a start up, you cannot be new and a leader at the same time. Claiming leadership too early in the game removes you from leveraging a key competitive advantage. Being new to the market space allows you to attack the leader and forces them to acknowledge you as a player, which gives you instant credibility. In high technology, there are only a few leaders--Sun Microsystems in workstations, Oracle in database software, Microsoft in desktop software, and Intel in microprocessors to name some of the most prominent. Revenues and market share support their claims to leadership. Their customers are calling them leaders. While they probably do have brand in their respective markets, their position is well understood. Today, the key to a successful marketing campaign is to demonstrate value. Our argument is that this is best done through positioning. Focusing on positioning rather than brand will get you to your objectives much faster. Brand is nice but positioning is better.

Gelphman Associates is an integrated marketing communications agency serving companies in high technology. We offer public relations, advertising, web design, collateral development and tradeshow management for development of a single, efficient and effective message platform. robert@gelphman.com.


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