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The
ChannelMedia Top 10
By Keith Newman, Editor-in-Chief
Top Ten what? I’m not sure, but
everyone love’s a Top 10 list, so I decided to introduce one
for ChannelMedia. Each issue, I’m going to publish the 10 most
interesting tidbits, along with my own thoughts. Or at least I plan
to right now. I can be as fickle as a customer. Enjoy!
1. Web is where the growth is. Online retailing is up
71%, far outpacing retail’s overall single-digit growth. While
the 2001 online Holiday season will be affected by the economic downturn,
the influx of additional shoppers will spur growth that outpaces the
2.2% rise in overall US retail sales predicted by the National Retail
Federation.
2. Look back to see ahead. Everyone has a statistic
and a forecast on Holiday sales, some sensible and some downright
silly. Let me give you my prediction and you decide which it is: The
best operators over the first nine months will remain the best in
the last three. That goes for manufacturers, services, retailers and
resellers.
3. The amazing inevitable. For the younger folk in our
audience, go ask your Uncle Sheldon who Johnny Carson used to be.
Ed, stop chuckling and give me the envelope please.
The Answer: $25 billion, up 39%.
The Question: What will be the total online sales for this season?
4. Bust Buys. Traditional Discount stores are hot this season,
but the real discounts are what Best Buy has to pay to acquire its
growing collection of suffering retailers. Fry’s underscores
them with what they’ve paid for imploding virtual retailers.
I wonder if they paid with virtual dollars.
5. eBayWatch. Went to Comdex and had no money for an early
flight home or to play the tables. So I listened to eBay’s Meg
Whitman deliver an impressive keynote. Amazing to see how this company
has grown to become the best and most profitable online pure play.
They own online auctions and found/created a remarkable business model.
Kudos to the one profitable thing “e.” In traditional retail
they were just called closeouts and never offered much margin. My
only question: Is eBay a chain or a channel?
6. Comeback story of this year. CompUSA, hands down. No debt.
$200 million in cash. Who knew?
7. Comeback story of next year? Would you believe Hewlett-Paq-ard?
(sic). Well, I’m not sure I do either. But what a great story
it will be if that’s the way it comes out.
8. Play it again. eToys.com, an Internet store bankrupted in
March with three-year losses over $429 million. It’s back in
time for the Holidays under new owner K-B Toys and is operated by
KBkids.com. K-B operates more than 1,300 toy stores. This might work
out fine. The trend is for integrated bricks and clicks.
9. The incredible edible Mr. Egg. Bankruptcy court was filled
with a carton or two of Egg suitors but when the bidding for the brand
name and customer list went over several million dollars it was Amazon
vs Buy.com and Amazon won with a bid that reportedly exceeded $6M.
The OnSale name was also purchased as was technology equipment by
unnamed suitors. Will Amazon change the name of its PC store? Will
they be allowed to use the customer names? Thoughts?
10. Cash EMachines. EMachines, the 3rd largest vendor of retail
desktop PCs has agreed to let John Hui , a founder and board member
to buy it for $159 million in cash. The price per share is approximately
double what Nasdaq was trading them for at the Thanksgiving break.
It’s 36 percent higher than an offer Hui made earlier this month.
A company spokesperson vowed “no disruption at the consumer level.”
As the bad guy said in “To Have and Have Not,” said, “We
shall see.”
Hey, finally, thanks for the tremendous response to ChannelMedia’s
first issue. We continue to want your input to fuel the growth of
ChannelMedia - a 2-way interactive platform. The most valuable information
will make channel decision makers more effective and profitable. We
look forward to your recommendations for making ChannelMedia more
important and helpful to you.
Keith Newman is ChannelMedia's Editor-in-chief and CEO of Newman Media.
Contact: keithn@telocity.com (top
of page)
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Wal-Mart
CEO To Step Down
By ChannelMedia Staff Report
Wal-Mart Stores announced Thanksgiving
Eve that Jeanne Jackson would step down as walmart.com’s CEO
after the holiday season. She’ll be replaced by John Fleming,
VP, online merchandising. Jackson, who had previously been at Gap
Inc.'s Banana Republic division said she has no immediate plans. Fleming
joined WalMart.com last year from Target Stores where he was also
a merchandising executive.
Mike Ryan has reportedly left Circuit City after being there forever.
We can only speculate the reason is related to Circuit’s recent
appointment of Kim D. Maguire, SVP for Target Stores, as merchandising
EVP. Maguire has more than 20 years with Target. Most recently, he
was managing departments that produced $12 billion in annual sales.
Maguire succeeds John W. Froman, who has been named EVP and COO.
Best Buy recently appointed Michael Scharff as VP of Computers and
Randy Wick to the sound position of VP of Music, Movies and Car Stereos.
Best Buy has completed its acquisition of Future Shop, Canada's largest,
fastest-growing national brick and click electronic products retailer,
with 91 stores operating as Magnolia Hi-Fi (MagnoliaHiFi.com), Media
Play (MediaPlay.com), On Cue (OnCue.com), Sam Goody (SamGoody.com),
and Suncoast (Suncoast.com). It also has Canada’s top online
technology retailing operation.
Amazon.com has started selling furniture, clothing and jewelry from
Target Stores on its Web site. Customers can pick up the goods at
their local Target or have it shipped. Target also gets access to
Amazon’s customer list of 30 million customers. Amazon remains
chipper on 4Q profitability.
When it’s not shopping for computer companies, or battling for
proxy votes, Hewlett-Packard is trying to get into our living room.
On Halloween, it announced an Internet-ready Digital Entertainment
Center for under $1,000. It looks like a VCR and stores about 750
CDs, about the same as our executive editor’s garage. It has
a 40 gig hard drive and plays Internet radio stations selected by
partner RealNetworks. It writes CDs but lacks DVD functions. A great
stocking stuffer if you have feet like the Shaq O’Neal.
We don’t need no stinkin’ taxes! Congress has sent President
Bush a bill to continue the moratorium on Internet taxes for two more
years and he has already said he’ll sign. "The administration
believes that government should be promoting Internet usage and availability,
not discouraging it with access and discriminatory taxes," the
White House said.
Federated Stores swung to profit in Q3 after a 7Q sag. Net income
is $3 million or $.02 per share. Tiffany tanked by 34%, losing 16
cents per share. Diamonds are forever but right now bargain-bin knock-offs
are more inline with the times.
Auction giant eBay, Inc. recently reaffirmed its aggressive growth
targets despite the harsh business climate. The revenue goal stands
at $3 billion with 2002 net revenue expected to be just shy of $1.1
b. The eBay marketplace is thriving across geographies, trading categories,
pricing formats, listed items, user growth and the services we offer
our community, according to a senior company representative. It also
continues to do some great reputation marketing with it’s "Auction
for America," an initiative that has raised tens of millions
for 9/11 victim families.
Toys R Us, the nation’s largest toy store chain, recently posted
a wider 3Q loss as expenses from store-remodeling and waning consumer
confidence after 9/11 hurt results. It was the third straight quarterly
loss for the Paramus, NJ-based retailer. The company said that assuming
its sales recover, it expects to return to profitability in Q4. John
Eyler chairman and CEO said the launch of new products and the start
of a new video game cycle could help the company boost sales in the
Holiday season. He said Toys R Us now had 433 Mission Possible stores
--which feature themed areas and are set up in a racetrack format
rather than the old supermarket-type layout. Among its segmented highlights,
he reported www.toysrus.com -- operating with Amazon.com--lost $17
million in Q3, in line with expectations, and down from $30 million
a year ago. Web sales rose to $39 million from $23 million.
Cell phone leader Nokia has launched three new phones including a
color-screen model with built-in camera in an attempt to regain momentum
in a globally stalled market. The Finnish company holds about a third
of the total market that sells about 400 million handsets annually.
(top
of page)
Got a hot tip? Contact: keithn@telocity.com
(top of
page)
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Looking to hire someone in a channel-related position (i.e. Buyer,
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list? Other comments you want to share with the Channel Community?
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Microsoft
Pre-launches TabletPC Again
By
ChannelMedia Staff Report
Microsoft used this year’s Comdex
to unveil its Tablet PC, which went much better than when they launched
it at last year’s Comdex. It was no great surprise last time
either when you consider the company’s earlier efforts and discussions
boosting this type of product.
The Tablet PC is a full-featured computer delivered with a touch screen,
wireless connection, as well as speech and handwriting recognition.
The Tablet PCs is positioned as a full use computer, and will be priced
in the mid-range when it ships sometime late in 2002.
The device is designed to provide very long battery life, portable
and support 802.11 wireless connectivity, with Bluetooth coming sometime
in the future. An electronic pen will either translate, or simply
record user input as electronic ink. Microsoft has lined up several
hardware OEMs including Compaq, Acer, Toshiba, NEC and Sony. Intel
and Transmeta will provide microprocessing power.
It ‘s also somewhat interesting to look at who is not behind
it, at least right now. The list includes Dell, IBM and Hewlett-Packard.
Michael Dell told a local Texas newspaper his company is looking at
Tablet PCs as far down the road as 18 months. Dell, usually in lockstep
with Microsoft, focuses on markets where it can enjoy immediate return.
Tablet PCs have been launched with hoopla several times over the past
decade, so far failing miserably, except in narrow vertical markets.
But Microsoft is banking on a new, as yet unreleased version of its
Windows XP OS, lower component costs and users apparent willingness
to now try handwriting input.
It remains to be seen, however, how the product’s pricing strategy
will fare in the enterprise. It’s expected to cost from $2,000
to about $4,500. That apparently won’t cover added costs for
docking station, desktop screen, external keyboard, CD-ROM drive and
possibly additional components aside from the tablet. Software developer
kits are just coming out now. It remains to be seen when any 3rd-party
apps will be available
If electronic ink and note taking are so important, why not use a
$500 PDA with that capability? Even combined with a mainstream PC,
the cost would be lower. Competitor Palm has been talking about a
tablet for some time. Now might be the time to enter with a low-cost
competitive offering.
Make no mistake. Microsoft intends to succeed. Where in the past it
was often viewed as bringing handwriting technology and supporting
tablet concepts mostly as a defensive move, it is now looking to stay.
Because of this, Microsoft can be expected to take as much time as
it needs to get its software right. That is probably why there is
no concrete ship date, simply later in 2002.
So don’t bank against this concept, but still, it might be wise
to let the first generation pass by and let the market develop before
jumping onto the bandwagon. (top
of page)
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Gartner
Dataquest Says Game Consoles to Top 49 Million in 2002
By ChannelMedia Staff
With the launch of two new video game
consoles, worldwide shipments will reach 49 million units in 2002,
up from 29 million this year, according to Dataquest Inc., a unit
of Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB).
"Consumers may not be interested in upgrading their PC to run
spreadsheets faster, but in video game consoles, hardware performance
is 'in your face' obvious," said Andrew Johnson, vice president
at Gartner Dataquest. "It is the unending quest for more lifelike
graphics that will keep consumers coming back to retailers for more
gaming devices."
Developing high-performance game consoles is a significant project
for hardware vendors. Gartner Dataquest analysts said with proprietary
silicon solutions, these consoles require high investments to stay
on the leading edge of the performance curve. This high investment
necessitates longer product life cycles for more software profits.
"This high investment also gates the market for new competitors,
giving Sony PlayStation and PS2 models a somewhat protected market,"
Johnson said. "But Nintendo and Microsoft are ready to challenge
Sony if economic conditions do not get in the way."
A recent GartnerG2 survey found 75% of video game sales will be to
consumers who already have a video game console, up from 55% last
year.
A new competitive landscape may shorten life cycles, leading to new
consoles in 2004. This would have a tremendous impact on business
models. Gartner Dataquest analysts said manufacturers also must be
prepared for more cautious consumer spending, a slower production
ramp and distribution capacity, tempering 2002’s upturn.
"Increasing capacity in 2002 is no small task for Microsoft,
Nintendo and Sony," Johnson said. "Their consumption of
component devices, such as hard disk drives, will reveal how fast
vendors can ramp. While gaming devices have been popular within their
expanding population of gamers, long-term growth into the mass market
of non-gamers is a serious issue. Game titles will play a key role
in expanding the addressable market."
Gartner Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the high technology
and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor,
computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management,
software, and services sectors of the global information technology
industry.
Gartner, Inc. is a research and advisory firm that helps more than
11,000 clients understand technology and drive business growth. For
more information, visit www.gartner.com.
To subscribe to Gartner Dataquest programs, please call 800-419-DATA,
or 408-468-8000. Reports can be purchase on www.gartner.com.
(top
of page)
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Job
Opportunity: Product Managers Needed
Daisytek, distributor of computer supplies Dallas, needs Product
Managers in several categories. Min 5 - 10 years of channel
experience.
Contact: sreedy@daisytek.com |
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Lower
Prices May Keep MP3 Sales Strong
By Jessica Wilke, ARS Research Analyst
This season, digital audio player manufacturers
and their customers may be getting exactly what they wished for. Until
this year, most digital audio devices were priced too high for many
potential customers. Now, falling flash memory prices have positioned
MP3 players at or below the $99 consumer sweet spot just as we go
into the Holiday season. As memory prices continue to drop, digital
audio players may soon be as common as CD players.
In the digital audio market, MultiMedia is the most prevalent form
of flash memory. However, Sony is currently working with numerous
firms to integrate its proprietary Memory Stick technology into other
digital audio players, such as Samsung’s Yepp line. If they succeed,
you can expect the competition will further drive retail prices down.
Average Retail Street Price for 32MB Removable flash memory
Source: ARS Removable Flash Media Retail Scorecards
Within the past four months, SONICblue, First International Digital,
and D-Link all have introduced sub-$100 MP3 players. SONICblue’s
Rio One, First International Digital’s irock! 500 series, and
D-Link’s Roq-it DMP-210 not only sell below $99, they also contain
memory expansion slots. Eight months ago, 32MB MP3 players hovered
in the $130 to $170 price band. Now, they’re under $99. The following
chart illustrates how far prices have fallen since February.
Retail 32MB MP3 Player Average Street Prices
Source: ARS Digital Audio Retail Price/Margin Models
Not all category vendors are concentrating on the low-end. New music
storage products that can hold over 1GB have become increasingly popular
as music enthusiasts go mobile. Three weeks ago, as Intel was exiting
the digital audio arena, Apple jumped in with its new 5GB iPod MP3
. The iPod uses Apple’s exclusive FireWire cable, enabling users
to transfer entire music CDs in less than 10 seconds. While the iPod
has been criticized for its steep $399 price, its data transfer technology
is second to none and raises the bar for portable digital audio devices.
Memory serves as a prominent market driver for all digital audio products.
With flash prices falling, consumers will enjoy greater choice. This
Holiday season, digital audio manufacturers hope consumers will take
advantage of affordable prices, stuffing shopping carts and stockings
with MP3 players.
ARS, Inc. is a La Jolla, California-based business-to-business
Competitive Market Intelligence Company specializing in the daily
tracking and analyzing of the e-commerce, PC, and Networking markets.
Visit us at www.ars1.com.
Contact: Jessica Wilke at jwilke@ars1.com
(858) 551-0008 (top
of page)
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Bluetooth
Smiles at Last
By ChannelMedia Staff
Bluetooth, wireless networking’s
once bright star has lost considerable luster over the last year as
it routinely failed to fulfill its lofty promises. It may have hit
its nadir when Microsoft announced recently it wouldn’t support
Bluetooth in its forthcoming Windows XP OS. The technology, which
permits wireless data transmission up to 10 meters at 1Mbps, had been
supplanted by the 802.11 family of mixed alphabet products.
But the tide seems to have turned as delays over which 802.11 version
will be used—a, b, or g—brings realization that the two
technologies are designed to cohabitate rather than compete. Microsoft
has even come back onboard, announcing future OS releases including
Windows CE .NET will support Bluetooth. Redmond’s approval is
likely to encourage legions of developers, and a long-overdue groundswell.
Bluetooth hardly dominated Comdex, but neither did anyone else. It
did appear in several key products. Intel, long a supporter, and Hewlett-Packard
showed a concept PC featuring a Bluetooth-enabled mouse. Intel says
it will build Bluetooth support into its mobile chipsets, as well
as 802.11. Sony featured it in its Network Handycam using Bluetooth’s
Web-browsing and e-mail capabilities.
Cambridge Silicon Radio, a leading Bluetooth silicon developer claims
it now has 100 design wins, and supports a power list of licensees
including IBM, Sony and NEC.
Over the past year, Bluetooth has suffered from self-inflicted wounds
as well as competitive thrusts. Many viewed it as a rival to 802.11,
but it isn’t really. It allows a user's handheld to talk to a
mobile phone. 802.11 replaces wired connections LANs, and requires
a great deal more power.
Other concerns, including chipsets, security, interference, spectrum
availability and interoperability seem to be getting resolved as well.
The critical cost factor is gone now that the price is in the $20
price range and is expected to hit the magical $5 sweet spot soon.
Resurgence signs started last month when the Bluetooth SIG revealed
it had qualified 108 products during the last quarter, the bulk being
cell phones, or computer electronics and consumer electronic devices.
There are now 350 qualified Bluetooth products and it is anticipated
that next months Bluetooth trade show in San Francisco will see more
new products unveiled.
Contact: Keith Newman keithn@telocity.com
(top
of page)
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What's
In a Name?
By
Scott Reedy
Over the last seven years or so working
in marketing and merchandising I’ve spent countless hours listening
to debates on what to do with customer name lists. Most companies
are unclear on the value of their own database and how to use that
value to gain revenue. There’s a whole science dedicated to it.
I’m not a Database Marketing expert, but I have come to some
basic conclusions about the value of names.
Basically there are two keys things to understand: Acquisition Cost
and Valuation. Acquisition cost is fairly straightforward. To get
the customer acquisition cost, take your annual net marketing expense
and divide it by the number of customers (not emails) you obtain.
Customer Valuation--how much you will get out of the customer—is
slightly trickier. Its best measured in terms of gross margin, not
sales. It is usually called Customer Lifetime Value (CLV), but that’s
a bit of misnomer. Typically you take the average net profit per sale
and multiply it by the average number of times a customer will buy
from you over a two-year period. So it is not really Lifetime Value,
but does give you an approximate number for budgeting marketing dollars.
These are important for two reasons:
First, you want to know if a program will earn back its investment
and in what time. If you know how much it costs you to obtain a customer
you can determine how much you want to invest in a marketing program
to acquire the name. You also can use it to compare against competitors
and industry standards.
Second, you can use CLV to put an asset value on your customer list
if you sell or merge the company. For example, if you have 100,000
customers and they bring you $50 in net gross profit over a two-year
period, you have a $5 million list. However, customers must be maintained
to meet the expectation. It’s like growing grass. You have to
water, fertilize and periodically mow. Untended, it grows into a weedy
mess or browns out.
Another term, Earn Back Period, defines where customer acquisition
costs and valuation meet as a time function. Listen up -- you will
hear these terms used by company execs in broad sweeping terms. Sometimes
they know what they’re talking about, but in any case, using
them this is good thing. It means they’re tracking their data.All
this said I have some general numbers that I use when I don’t
know anything about the list or company. They are: $5 for an email,
$20 for a name, address + email, and about $50 for a buyer. My experience
tells me these numbers will hold up fairly well over time. Try running
your own to see how closely they match.
Scott Reedy is an Independent Channel Consultant. With over 15 years
in the computer channel, he has had tenure at several companies including
Apple Computer, Ingram Micro, Multiple Zones, and Onsale / Egghead.com.
(top
of page)
Contact: scottreedy@hotmail.com
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The
Customer’s Right To Choose
By Steve Cross, The Cross Channel Group, Inc
I first visited PC Connection in 1989.
They were still housed in the funny little offices of a converted
New Hampshire farmhouse. They had moved into them when they first
started with $8,000 in 1982. Now a public company with annual sales
in excess of
$1 billion, PC Connection has succeeded enormously by responding to
customers choosing their buying channel. PC Connection was also an
early mover into e-tail, meeting customer priorities for buying on
the Internet.
Responding to customer choice drove PC Connection. I believe customer
priorities generate channel choice. Let's look at recent history.
As Internet access became more available, some customers chose to
use the Internet for buying/ordering of computer/consumer electronics
goods. Just like in the late 80s and early 90s some customers chose
catalogs.
Look at how fast the catalogs grew to meet that new choice.
Customer demographics and psychographics drove that choice. Maybe
the emergence of dual income households, increased traffic in the
large cities, faster modems. Some confluence of factors created an
environment where customers decided to buy in a different way than
they had before. Their priorities changed and opportunities to meet
that change presented themselves to merchants who saw that need and
filled it.
A change in the customer's purchasing mechanism only works when customers,
or prospects, decide to use it. The trick is to be close enough to
your customers to figure out when that change is occurring, and jump
on it. That's where advantage originates. The companies who will lead
tomorrow are those who are finding out where their customers and prospects
are going today.
Steve Cross is a leading consultant specializing in building value
for high tech companies. He is best known as former Vice President
of Sales at Connectix during their turnaround from under $1 million
to over $70 million in annual revenue from 1993-1997. His clients
have included Pinnacle Systems, Visioneer, Dazzle, Network ICE, Margi,
Aladdin, Outpost.com, and many others. (top
of page)
Contact: steve@crosschannel.com
408-528-7211
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Are
Happy Days Here Again?
By Shel Israel, Channel Media Managing Editor
It seems to me the thud you just heard
was the sound of the economy hitting bottom. It’s a bit bruised,
but the good news is there appears to be a light at the end of the
tunnel where many people feared a brick wall. The tunnel is also
shorter than we thought.
I predict this Holiday Season will be a pleasant economic surprise.
Consumers will spend—digging deeper than they plan and perhaps
at the last minute, but with greater appreciation for the people
they love.
Recently, someone reminded me of the movie classic, “Being
There,” in which Peter Sellers often repeats, “Things
will grow in the spring.” Of course, Sellers was playing the
role of an idiot, and I may be doing the same, but I believe the
U.S. economy will be downright healthy by mid-spring.
I used to cross-country ski in early spring. Gliding along slushy
ruts, I’d suddenly notice buds forming on trees and little
green sprigs popping up through the snow. I’d know brighter
days were coming and that knowledge got me through the last and
dreariest days of New England winter.
Okay, I’m not quite ready to burst into a chorus of “Happy
Days are Here Again,“ but I’m feeling the anticipation
of change and I’m seeing symbolic buds and sprigs all over
the place.
Here are a few:
- AOL
reports that advertising has, ever so slightly, notched up for
the first time in 18 months.
- Consumer
confidence jumped back up last month—significantly.
- Nielson,
Harris and Gartner all reported online consumer sales are downright
explosive. While forecasts vary for Q4, they are all in the double
or even triple digits over last year.
- Investor
Angels are singing—at least some of them. I had dinner recently
with Carol Sands, founder/director of The Angels Forum, and Forum
member Ed Esber. They sound absolutely bullish. Carol recalls
no time when there were more and better investment opportunities.
She reports that her group’s seed investment rate has escalated
significantly since August. New companies mean new products.
Angel investor Scott Briggs, a past Ziff Davis president, is also
optimistic, although a shade more cautious. “Barring any
unforeseen new catastrophe or lay-offs, the worst is probably
over. A lot depends on how the consumer acts over the Christmas
season. If we do OK, it will signal everything’s ready to
roll.”
- I
attended Dick Shaffer’s VentureWire conference, “Managing
the Downturn--Survival Strategies for 2002.” With a title
like that, I brought bandages in case anyone sitting nearby slashed
his or her wrists. But much of what I heard was again guardedly
bullish.
The panels and speakers were filled with industry veterans like
Bill Campbell, Gordon Eubanks, Bill Krause, Sandy Robinson and
others who have been there and done that repeatedly and usually
successfully. I heard speakers forecast that the economy would
not turn for six months to a year, but three times I heard the
disclaimer, “perhaps sooner.”
Shaffer’s VentureWire takes the industry’s only daily
measure of private investment activity. He estimates that currently,
over $105 billion in venture is available.
- My
work in starting ChannelMedia, has given me the opportunity to
chat with technology retailers. I sense an undercurrent of optimism
that branded retailers will hit their targets for the quarter.
I put particular stake in the retailer’s perspective for
two reasons.
First, they have their fingers on the pulse of the consumer, the
driver for two-thirds of our overall economy. Second, retailers
use intuition and observation rather than just historic data.
You can never tell the future, it seems to me, just by looking
in your rearview mirror.
- Retail
stocks are running well ahead of the market. Branded value leaders
like Target, Wal-Mart and Costco have been performing extremely
well, up at least 25 percent in the past eight weeks.
- Consumer
spending last month jumped a record 7.1 percent. While the bulk
of it may have been auto sales, there was impressive increase
in apparel and accessory spending as well as department and discount
stores. People still shop when they’re depressed and the
end result has been the happy sound of cash register chimes.
None of these
are overwhelming indicators. I can already anticipate readers stacking
up data that would indicate Warren Buffet was right when he forecast
eight more years of lackluster economic performance. Warren is the
only guy this side of Bill Gates who can actually afford eight lousy
years. In any case, I’m willing to bet he’s wrong.
Of course, as Scott Briggs points out, the wildest cards are in
the hands of the diabolical thugs who put anthrax in mail and jets
into buildings in the name of whatever it is they consider holy.
Perhaps it’s my secret fondness for cowboy movies that leaves
me thinking the good guys will win in the end and the bad guys will
either disappear or at least spend the rest of their days huddled
in cold Afghani caves.
Are Happy Days really here again? I think they soon will be. And
if any of you speak to Warren, tell him I’ll bet my net worth
against his that I’m right.
Shel Israel writes for CEOs and corporations and consults on corporate
messaging.
(top
of page)
Contact: shel@ItSeemstoMe.net
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